城市规模、生产性服务业发展与制造业集聚--基于中国地级市面板数据的实证研究

City Size,Development of Producer Services and Manufacturing Agglomeration:Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-Level Cities

笔者在新经济地理的分析框架下研究城市规模和生产性服务业专业化及多样化发展对制造业集聚的影响。对283个地级市及以上城市面板数据的计量分析显示,城市规模对制造业集聚的影响呈倒U型,且制造业集聚从城市规模扩大中获得的边际效益随生产性服务业专业化水平提高而下降,但随生产性服务业多样化水平提高而上升。生产性服务业专业化和多样化发展对制造业集聚的影响效应取决于城市规模。在中小规模城市,生产性服务业多样化发展将阻碍制造业集聚,生产性服务业专业化发展将促进制造业集聚。在超大城市,制造业集聚度随生产性服务业专业化水平提高而下降,但随生产型服务业多样化水平提高而提高。在城市人口大于100万小于800万的大城市和特大城市,生产性服务业专业化和多样化发展都有利于制造业集聚,但多样化的边际效应强于专业化。东、中、西部地区之间城市规模和生产性服务业发展及两者对制造业集聚的协同影响存在较大差异。

This paper employs a theoretical model based on new economic geography to analyze the effect of city size and development of producer services on manufacturing agglomeration. Making an empirical study by using the panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities, the results imply that as city size increases, manufac- turing exhibits a significant inverted U-shaped relationship, the marginal effect of city size on manufacturing increases as the diversification of producer services raises and decreases as the specialization of producer serv- ices raises. The effects of specialization and diversification of producer services on manufacturing agglomeration depend on size of cities. In small and medium-sized cities, the diversified development of producer services would hinder manufacturing agglomeration, the specialized development of producer services would promote manufacturing agglomeration. In megacities, the specialization of producer services negatively affect manufac- turing agglomeration, the diversification of producer services positively affect manufacturing agglomeration. In big and super cities with population more than 1 million but less than 8 million, the diversified and specialized development of producer services all promote manufacturing agglomeration, while the marginal effect of diver- sification outweighs specialization. The impacts of producer services, city size and their synergistic effect on manufacturing agglomeration are quite different between East, Middle and West regions.