世界经济长周期视阈下的中国主导产业形成机制——基于东亚国家和地区经验之分析

The Formation Mechanism of China 's Dominant Industries from the Perspective of Long Cycle of World Economy——An Analysis Based on East Asian Countries and Regions

世界经济发展史表明,一国主导产业选择直接决定该国经济发展的速度和方向,可谓"一国命脉"。世界经济发展总是有可兹遵循的共性和规律。当下我国经济处于增度放缓、结构升级和发展动力不足的战略转型期。将视阈扩展到世界经济长周期范围内,探究与我国在历史语境、文化心态与认同机制都存在诸多共性的东亚国家和地区经济转型升级的成功经验,梳理其主导产业的形成机制,可以发现,供给要素(比较优势)、市场需求(内需+外需)、制度保障(政策法规)是经济成功转型的三大要素。在新常态背景下,遵循这一规律将会有效促进经济增长和跨越中等收入陷阱。

The history of world economic development indicates that the choice of dominant industries of a country can directly determine the rate and direction of the country＇s economic development, and it can be described as the lifeline of a country. There are always commonalities and laws in the world＇s economic development that can be followed by other na- tions. China＇s current economic growth is in a slowdown process, with structural upgrading and lack of momentum during the strategic transition period. This paper expands the prospective into the long cycle of economic growth in the world, and ex- plores the successful experiences of economic transformation and upgrading in East Asian countries and regions which have many common features in the historical context, cultural mentality and recognition mechanism. It also analyzes the formation mechanism of dominant industries in these countries and regions. It can be found that the supply factor（ comparative advan- tages）, market demand（ domestic demand ＋ external demand）, and institutional guarantee （policy and regulations）are the three major dements for the successful transition of East Asian countries and regions. Against the background of the new normal situation,following this law will effectively promote economic growth and avoid the medium-income trap.