俄罗斯管道外交对中国的影响及其应对

The Influence of Russia's Pipeline Diplomacy on China and Its Countermeasures

出于历史原因和现实选择,俄罗斯向欧洲架设了多条能源管线,不仅促进了俄欧能源合作,还加强了欧盟对俄罗斯的能源依赖。俄罗斯依靠多条能源管线,换回了大量外汇,支持了经济建设,在欧洲地缘政治格局中占据一席之地。俄罗斯管道外交呈现"东西并进"态势。"乌克兰危机"和"页岩气革命"使俄罗斯在俄欧能源博弈中不再占有优势地位,对俄在欧洲天然气市场上的传统能源权力造成不利影响,也为中俄能源合作创造了契机。

Due to historical reasons and realistic choices, Russia has installed a multitude of energy pipelines to Eu- rope. These energy pipelines not only guarantee the market share of Russia in the European energy market, but also maintain the EU＇s dependence on Russia for energy supply. Russia relies on these multiple energy pipelines to earn a large volume of foreign exchange, so as to support its financial income and economic growth, and to win its due position in the European geo- political landscape. Russia＇s pipeline diplomacy will show ＂simultaneous development in east and west＂ and ＂double-head- ed eagle mode＂. However,the ＂Ukrainian crisis＂ and ＂shale gas revolution＂ had deprived Russia of its advantages in the Russian-European energy game, and caused very negative effect on the traditional energy power of Russia on European natu- ral gas market. Sino-Russian pipeline cooperation has made breakthroughs;for China, the Sino-Rnssian energy pipeline con- strnetion can ensure the national energy security and adequate external energy supply;for Russia, the construction can par- tially make up for the losses due to reduced export to Europe,and further expand into the Asia-Pacific energy market.