日俄和约交涉的新动向及其对中日关系的影响

The New Trend of Russo-Japanese Negotiation over the Peace Treaty and its Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations

与韩国解决"慰安妇问题"之后,日本迅速以"不固执于领土问题"的妥协姿态与俄罗斯厘定和平条约交涉"新思路",并启动了谈判。从战后处理的历史过程和日俄交涉最新进展来看,双方极尽博弈的最大相互利益,将是日本承认第二次世界大战造成日俄间领土改变"结果"与俄罗斯承认战后美日间"冲绳返还"的"历史事实"的平衡。这意味着,日本不再纠缠"北方四岛"返还,俄罗斯确认向日本移交两岛,但目前维持现状即还要谈判移交条件甚至于美国不从冲绳撤军则俄不实际或不完全移交,而在确认战后"琉球再冲绳化"为合法的意义上强化了日本把钓鱼岛作为冲绳一部分的立场,陷中国的钓鱼岛权益于危险境地。日韩、日俄相继和解,将使中国对日外交面临更复杂的形势。

Having resolved the Comfort Women Issue with South Korea, Japan swiftly turns to deal with Russia over the territorial issue and the peace treaty negotiation under the guidance of the ＂new approach＂. According to the historical settlement in the postwar era and the current progress in Russo - Japanese negotiation, the point on which both sides compromise to the mutual benefit will be a balance between Japan＇ s admitting the ＂result＂ of territorial change between Japan and Russia after WWII and Russia＇s recognizing the ＂historical fact＂ of the ＂return of Okinawa＂ in the 1970s, which means that Japan will give up the claim for returning the four disputed islands and Russia will transfer two of them to Japan. However, the status quo wiU be maintained for the time being before any agreement is reached. Russia will probably not transfer or completely transfer the two islands to Japan on condition that U. S rejects to withdraw its military force from Okinawa. In terms of confirming the legitimacy of Japan＇ s ＂re - Okinawaization of Ryukyu＂, the Russo - Japanese negotiation strengthens Japan＇ s position of taking the Diaoyu Islands as a part of Okinawa, putting China＇ s rightful sovereignty over Diaoyu Islands in danger. The Japan - Korea and Japan - Russia reconciliation over disputed issues means a mere complicated situation for China＇ s diplomacy toward Japan.