基于能源消费和CO_2排放峰值的中国未来经济增长速度预测

China's Future Economic Growth Forecasts: Based on the Peak Years of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions

能源消费达峰年和CO_2排放达峰年紧密关联,大多数发达国家或其组成的经济体是两个峰值同时达到;不同时达到的国家主要是非化石能源的增量超过能源消费的增量,从而实现错位达峰。能源消费达峰时,GDP的增长速度与单位GDP能耗(下称能耗强度)的下降速度相抵消,从而达峰年能耗强度下降的速度锁定了GDP的增长速度。发达国家能耗强度下降速度可作为未来我国能源消费达峰时经济增长速度的参照,1990-2012年间能耗强度下降最快的英国是2.45%,在这个速度下达峰所能支撑的经济增长速度为2.5%。中国在未来多个与能源消费相关的关键指标达到能源消费峰值基本条件时,其能耗强度下降速度也将与发达国家类似。不能期望中国2035年前后的能耗强度下降速度与1990-2012年间中国开始重视能耗强度控制时的下降速度相同,此时,达峰也只能支撑4.2%的经济增长速度,况且国际大环境也发生根本变化。

The peak years of energy consumption and CO2 emissions have a closely relationship, most of the developed countries or economiesreach these two peaks at the same time; But most of the fossil energy increment over the incremental energy consumption not achieve the two peaks at the same time, so as to realize the dislocation of the peak. Growth rate of GDP offset the energy consumption per GDP （refer to as energy intensity） rate of descent phase when Energy consumptionreach the peak, so energy intensity decreased speed lock thegrowth rate of GDP. Rate of descent in energy intensity in the developed countries can be referring to our country＇s future economic growthrate reached the peak energy consumption. Britain＇s energy intensity decline is2.45 %, which is the fastest decline between 1990 and 2012,and this drop speed from peak to support economic growth rate is 2.5%. China＇s energy consumption decrease will be similar to those in developed countries in future when reaches the basic conditions of peak of some key associated energy consumption indexes. We do not except that energy consumption speed of China in coming 15 years is the same as 1990-2012, when China begin to attach importance to control the energy consumption intensity. And fundamental changes have taken place in international environment.