中国未来就业规模与结构预测：一个国际比较的视角

Prediction of the Forthcoming Employment Scale and Structure:A Perspective of International Comparison

当前中国呈现与发达国家工业化后期非常相似的就业特征。面对经济与人口结构的剧烈变化以及国外需求冲击和新技术革命影响杂糅的局面,中国就业形势显得扑朔迷离。通过全面系统回顾发达国家长期就业增长和结构演变趋势,发现不仅在就业总量绝对值的趋势上,甚至在就业比例相对值上,各国都呈现出非常相似的阶段性特征。这些经验规律为预测中国就业总量和结构提供了相对准确的参照:未来新增劳动力需求就业总量增加比就业岗位的增加略低,中国劳动力供给依然比较充足。第二产业就业比例将维持稳定,服务业将成为吸纳就业的主要领域,农业就业减少主要被服务业的增加所替代;第二产业中,建筑业就业比例会持续增加,制造业比例维持稳定,采掘业将持续下降;第三产业中,生产服务业比例会提升,生活性服务业比例会下降。

Employment is the foundation for people＇s lives, the cornerstone for the stability of our country. To grasp the forthcoming trends of employment scale and structure not only helps understand the stage characteristics of economic development but also has guiding significance for making policy of employment, educational training and social insurance. The current employment of China presents a similar characteristics with later stage of industrialization of developed countries. But facing the combined influence from the violent changes of economy and population structure, impact of foreign demand and new technological revolution, the employment trends in China looks complicated and confusing. Through systematic and comprehensive comparison of the long - term employment growth and structure evolution of the developed countries, it shows similar stage features on both the trends of employment amount and the portion of employment among countries, which can provide relatively accurate reference for the prediction of total employment and structure in China. The increase of the total demand for new jobs is slightly lower than the increase of the employment post, so labor supply is still abundant in China; Employment proportion of the secondary industry remained stable and service industry is the main field of creating employment. The declining employment in agriculture is mainly offset by the increase of service industry. In the secondary industry, proportion of the construction industry will continuously increase, the manufacturing industry will stay stable and the excavating industry will decline. In the third industry, produce services will increase and life services will decline.