新兴产业成长阶段与市场路径选择的匹配契合模型与应用

On the matching model and application of the growing stages and market path selections of emerging industries

根据新兴产业成长的特点,将新兴产业划分为"技术与商业化示范""规模化降低成本"和"大面积应用"等几个主要阶段,分析了现有产业发展阶段分析判断方法的适用性,将Logistic模型引入到新兴产业具体成长阶段的甄别判断过程中,应用VIKOR评价模型从产业实力、市场需求、政府扶持三个维度构建了新兴产业成长阶段与市场路径选择的契合评价模型,并以我国光伏产业为例展开了实证研究。结果表明,我国光伏产业目前处于"技术与商业化示范"向"规模化降低成本"过渡的时期,现阶段要选择"以国内市场为主,国际市场为辅"的市场路径,以契合光伏产业的成长周期并实现持续稳健发展。

At different growing stages, an emerging industry holds different competitiveness, and its market path should match its growing stage. In accordance with the growth characteristics of emerging industries, the present essay divides the emerging industries into several main stages, including the ＂technical and commercial demonstration,＂ ＂buy-down＂ and ＂large-scale deployment＂ and the like. After going into the applicability of the existing analyzing and judging methods about the industrial development stages, we adopt the Logistic Model to identify and judge the specific growing stages of the emerging industries, and apply the VIKOR Evaluation Model to construct a matching and assessment model for the growing stages and their market channel selections from such three dimensions as the industrial strength, market demand and government support with the photovoltaic industry in China as an example to conduct an empirical research. The results show that the photovoltaic industry in China is experiencing the transition from ＂technical and commercial demonstration＂ to ＂buy-down＂ stage, at which the market path for the photovoltaic industry should give priority to the domestic market with international market as a supplement so as to match the growth cycle of the photovoltaic industry and achieve sustainable and steady development.