上海人口老龄化对消费水平的影响研究

Study on the Influence of the Aging Population on the Consumption Level in Shanghai

老龄化已成为严重影响上海经济社会发展的突出因素。在分析上海市人口老龄化的进程与主要特征,指出人口老龄化对消费需求的影响路径的基础上,关注上海市城乡居民消费水平的变动情况,运用上海市1978年-2013年有关人口年龄结构、消费水平以及相关经济发展的时间序列数据,分析上海市人口老龄化与居民消费水平两者之间的关系以及对居民消费水平构成影响的其他因素,研究表明:人均消费水平、人均GDP、人均可支配收入与老年人口比重之间存在线性相关关系,人口老龄化对消费水平的影响呈负向影响。而人口老龄化对居民消费水平的负向影响将会给社会经济生活等带来诸多意义深远的问题。物价指数、人口自然增长率以及劳动人口比重等对城镇居民消费水平的作用并不显著。

The aging has become an important factor which seriously affects the economic and social development in Shanghai. Based on the analysis of the process and main characteristics of the aging of population in Shanghai,pointing out the aging path on the basis of the influence of consumer demand,focusing on changes in the urban and rural residents＇ consumption level of Shanghai in 1978-2013,the population age structure,consumption level,the economic development of the time series data,analyzing Shanghai population aging and the relationship between the residents＇ consumption level and other factors of residents＇ consumption level implications. The research has shown that per capita GDP,per capita disposable income,per capita consumption level and the proportion of elderly people,there is a linear relationship and negative impact between population aging effect on the level of consumption. The negative influence of the aging of population of residents＇ consumption level will bring social and economic life problem,etc many profound problems. The price index,the natural population growth rate and labor population in the urban residents＇ consumption level is not significant.