双重定价悖论与新世纪国际原油价格走势

The Dual Pricing Paradox and Trend of International Crude Oil Price in the New Century

新世纪以来,国际油价在基本上处于长时间高涨态势后又在近期保持了趋势性低迷。现有国际油价走势的研究难以对新世纪(尤其是近几年)国际油价走势给出充分解释。世界石油市场存在的双重定价悖论或许能够对新世纪国际油价走势提供另外一种有效分析视角。英国Brent原油价格日益成为世界石油市场最重要的基准油价格,但其所处区域市场的原油产量却逐年下降,直接导致Brent原油价格上扬,Brent原油价格通过基准油价格制度带动整个国际油价上涨,并在扩大效应的支撑下放大了国际油价上涨幅度。国际油价上涨和高位运行需要建立在旺盛的石油需求基础上,一旦世界石油需求增长出现不振甚至萎缩,国际油价就会大幅度下降,出现低迷趋势。

The international oil price was basically in a rising situation, and is presenting a tendency of low level since the new century. Research on the existing international oil prices is difficult to give a full explanation of the causes of the international oil prices in the new century （especially in recent years）. The dual pricing paradox in the world oil market may be the key reason. Brent price has been increasingly becoming the most important benchmark oil prices in the world oil market. However, the oil production in Brent regional market has decreased year by year since the new century, which had caused Brent prices to rise directly. And then, the whole international oil prices rose under the benchmark oil price institution. Moreover, the expansion effect in the benchmark oil price institution amplified the extent of international oil price fluctuation. However, the high level of international oil prices would entail the foundation of vigorous oil demand. In case of the weak oil demand, the international oil prices would decline significantly.