航空武器装备试验风险指数评估方法研究

Research on Risk Index Assessment Method for Aviation Weapon Equipment Test

针对现有的航空武器装备试验风险评估中风险指数确定方法的单一性和不合理性，提出了一种将模糊层次分析法和贝叶斯网络推理相结合的评估试验风险指数的方法。采用模糊层次分析法实现了评估中风险后果因素的量化评估；同时，利用贝叶斯网络分析引起风险的因素与可能导致的后果，结合专家知识定义了推理规则下各因素的条件概率矩阵，进而建立了航空武器装备风险评估的贝叶斯网络推理模型以及相应评估方法。实例分析表明，该方法合理有效，可为航空武器装备试验风险评估提供参考。

Due to the simplicity and irrationality of risk index assessment method in existing aviation weapon e- quipment test, this paper introduces a risk index assessment method to combine fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process with Bayesian network. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is employed to achieve quantitative evaluation of risk consequences in assessment, and the Bayesian network is utilized to analysis the risk factors and the possible consequences. The conditional probability matrix of the reasoning rule is given based on expert knowledge, and then the model of Bayesian networks and relative evaluation methods are developed. The analysis results show that this method is rational and effective and can provide a reference for risk auioment test. evaluation of aviation weapon e-quipment test.