上海出口集装箱运价期货对现货市场价格波动性的影响

The Impact of SCFI Futures on the Volatility of Spot Price

为航运企业控制船运风险创造条件,是我国发展航运运价指数衍生品的主要目的之一,上海出口集装箱运价期货上市,没有像期望的那样降低现货市场的风险,反而增大了现货市场的波动性。其原因可能在于期货市场的交易主体不合理、交易规则不规范和环境不确定因素的意外冲击。因此,在确保风险可控的前提下,政府应放松对国有企业参与衍生品交易的限制,积极引导国有大中型企业参与金融衍生品市场,探索政府推动与市场演化相结合的发展道路;加强对航运运价衍生品的宣传,强化对市场进入者的业务培训,使参与者了解规则并掌握技巧,同时吸引更多的自然人与法人参与到航运运价衍生品市场中来。

Providing beneficial condition for shipping enterprises to control risk of shipping is the main purpose for us to develop SCFI （Shanghai （Export） Containerized Freight Index） related derivatives. While the launch of SCFI Futures did not reduce risk in the corresponding spot markets as expected, it increased the price volatility in the spot markets. The possible causes for that is the impact brought by the irrational main players in the Futures market, the not standardized transaction rules, and the uncertain factors in the environment. So, in the precondition of controlled risk, the government should, first, ease restrictions on the state-owned enterprises （SOEs） in participating in derivatives transaction, encourage large and medium SOEs to participate in financial derivatives markets, and explore the development way of combining government and market~ second, the government should strengthen popularization of SCFI related derivatives and the training of market players, and try to attract more individual and institutional investors for this market.