国际大宗商品价格波动的中国因素探讨

On Chinaese Influencing Factors of International Commodity Price Fluctuation

国际大宗商品价格的持续上涨加剧了全球通货膨胀压力,而随着中国经济发展和地位提升,中国因素被认为是推动国际大宗商品价格上涨的重要原因。借鉴国外学者的FAVAR模型,采用多变量建立较为完整的宏观经济模型,研究结果表明:第一,中国需求的增加对国际大宗商品价格的上涨具有显著作用;第二,中国利率、人民币对美元汇率的上升会在短期内抑制国际大宗商品价格的上涨;第三,人民币汇率和利率虽然都会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响,但利率的作用效果要弱于汇率。因此,应尽快促进利率市场化,鼓励企业走出去,并加快推进产业结构调整,从而实现经济的持续健康发展。

The rise of international commodity price increases the pressure of global inflation; and with the economic development of China and the improvement of China＇ s position, Chinese factors have become the most important cause for the rise of international commodity price. With the help of FAVAR model, the authors carry out the related study on this by establishing a comprehensive macro economic model based on multi-variables. It is found that： first, the increase of Chinese demand has significant impact on the rise of international commodity price： second, the rise of China＇ s interest rate and the exchange rate of RMB to US dollars will restrain the rise of international commodity price in the short term; and third, the interest rate and exchange rate of RMB will both have significant impact on the price of international commodity, and the impact of interest rate will weaker than that of the exchange rate. So, we should accelerate interest rate liberalization, encourage the enterprises to go out, and accelerate industrial restructuring to realize the sustainable and healthy economic development.