价格结构性上涨:货币、物价和房价

Structural Price Increase: Money Supply,CPI and Property Price

近十几年来,我国货币供应量持续快速增长,与之对应的是以温和的CPI通胀和显著上涨的房价为特征的"价格结构性上涨"。本文结合我国货币政策实践,通过一个修正的DSGE模型模拟分析货币供应量增长对价格结构性上涨的影响机制。研究结果显示:货币供给量增长率提高0.5%,将促使实际租房价格增加约0.23%,实际房价上涨约0.40%,而消费品实际价格则下降约0.15%,这表明我国增加货币的冲击确实将产生价格结构性上涨现象。因此,央行继续单纯把CPI作为货币政策调整的"锚"已经不再合适,有必要考虑重新选择一个包含资产价格的更广泛的"政策锚"。

During the last decades, China＇ s money supply has been growing rapidly, resulting in moderate CPI inflation and significant property price increasing. That is ＂structural price increase＂ phenomenon. This paper uses a DSGE model to analyze the mechanism of this phenomenon. The simulation results show that money supply growth rate increasing by 0.5% will prompt the real housing price to increase by about 0.40%, while the real CPI to decease by about 0.15%. It suggests that monetary shock does produce ＂structural price increase＂ phenomenon in China.