深圳市龙岗区2011-2014年流感样病例监测效果评价

The evaluation of influenza-like illness surveillance system in Longgang district of Shenzhen during 2012-2014

目的通过流感监测系统数据和新增学校症状监测系统的一致性分析,从而了解深圳市龙岗区多种监测模式结合运用的效果。方法通过深圳市流感监测系统收集2011-2014年数据,从系统的代表性、稳定性、真实性以及时效性等属性评价深圳市龙岗区现有流感监测系统的预警作用。结果流感监测哨点覆盖全区34.30%的服务人口,监测系统数据具有一定的代表性,用流感样病例就诊百分比(ILI%)较前5周均值上升5%这个指标评价系统的灵敏性和特异性,其特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值最高,分别为91.43%、62.50%、72.73%,但灵敏度仅有29.71%。学生健康信息监测系统与疾病控制信息管理系统提前1周报告的ILI%亦相关(r=0.45,P<0.05)。结论龙岗区流感监测系统具有一定的代表性,监测数据可靠、稳定性好,但监测系统的灵敏性有待提高。

Objective To analyze the consistency of the data from past influenza surveillance system and new school syndrome surveillance system, and evaluate the effect of the combined use of a variety of monitoring modes in Longgang district of Shenzhen city. Methods All data during 2011-2014 were compared to data from the Shenzhen Disease Control Information System. Representativeness, authenticity, stability, timeliness and other aspects of the two systems were evaluated to reveal their early warning effects. Results The monitoring system data showed a certain representation since influenza sentinel sites covered 34.30% of the region′s population. The sensitivity and specificity of the system were valued by the indicator of 5%increase of ILI% compared with the previous five weeks. The specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value were 91.43%, 62.50%and 72.73%, respectively, but the sensitivity was only 29.71%. The system showed lower sensitivity, reported ILI% ahead of one weeks showed a good correlation （r=0.45, P〈0.05） between Student Health Information Monitoring System and Information Management System for Disease Control. Conclusion The existing influenza surveillance system in Longgang district has certain representativeness, and good reliability and stability. But the sensitivity and specificity of the monitoring system need to be improved.