中国大学生反事实思维及其表达的乐观主义倾向

Optimistic Tendencies in Chinese Undergraduates' Counterfactual Thinking and Expressions

本文首先介绍反事实思维及其表达(反事实条件句)的有关研究和争论,然后对从大学生的半结构化访谈中整理出的114个反事实条件句,从产出方式(引导与否)、前提性质(加法、减法、替换)、结论性质(上行、下行、持正)和归因偏向(外部、内部)4个维度进行考察,探讨了前提与结论、归因与前提等不同维度之间的关系。文章发现:在自然话语中,学生们主动进行反事实假设的情况较少,也比较困难;并且,在反事实推理的表达中,常常伴有表达低可能性的词语,来谨慎地表达自己对因果关系的不确定性。通过对前提性质与结论性质之相关性的考察,发现大学生反事实思维与表达的乐观主义倾向;通过归因偏向与前提性质之相关性的考察,发现学生们更容易对不作为(没有做某事)进行反事实思维。最后,文章从认识论和方法论角度,对反事实思维及其表达的效用和局限进行了讨论。

The paper makes a study on 114 counterfactual conditional sentences collected from a semi-structured interview performed on Chinese undergraduates from four perspectives:production mode,characteristics of the premise,characteristics of the conclusion,and attribution bias.The study suggests that undergraduates rarely conduct counterfactual thinking in natural discourse and they have some difficulty with it.The correlation between the characteristics of premises and conclusions reveals that there are optimistic tendencies in Chinese undergraduates' counterf actual thinking and expressions.