黑龙江省耕地资源安全预警及调控研究

Early-warning and Regulation of Cultivated Land Resource Security in Heilongjiang Province

本研究从压力、状态、响应三个子系统构建耕地资源安全预警指标体系，结合Matlab编程，采用灰色关联法，引用经济学中敏感度的概念，对2005年以来黑龙江省耕地资源安全进行预警分析，在此基础上进行调控研究。研究结果表明：（1）从各子系统的安全警度来看，2005—2014年，黑龙江省耕地资源安全压力系统的警度经历了“无警-轻警-中警”的变化过程；状态系统警度基本处于“中警”水平，响应系统的警度由“轻警”上升为“中警”。2015～2019年，耕地资源安全压力系统的警度由“中警”转变为“重警”，状态系统和响应系统的警度一直维持“中警”水平。（2）2005—2014年，黑龙江省耕地资源安全总体警度呈逐步上升趋势，2015～2019年，黑龙江省耕地资源安全将一直处于“中警”水平，但预警的指标值持续降低，接近“重警”的水平。（3）黑龙江省耕地资源安全需针对城市化水平、水土流失治理、盐碱地治理及防止耕地污染等方面加以调控。

This paper constructed an early-warning index system of cultivated land resource security in Heilongjiang Province from three aspects including pressure, state and response. The Grey Relational Analysis, the Matlab programming and Sensitivity in economics were used to make a warning analysis and regulation of the cultivated land resource security in Heilongjiang Province since 2005. The results showed that： （1） In terms of warning degree of each subsystem, the early-warning degree of the pressure system changed from no alarm to light alarm and then to moderate alarm in 2005 - 2014 in Heilongjiang Province; The state system kept in the state of moderate alarm; The warning degree of response system rose from light alarm to moderate alarm. In 2015 - 2019, the warning degree of pressure system will rise from moderate alarm to huge alarm. The state system and response system will keep in the state of moderate alarm. （2） In 2005 - 2014, the warning degree of cultivated land resources security in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend. In 2015 - 2019, the warning degree of cultivated land resource security will keep in the state of moderate alarm, but the index value will continue to decline to the huge alarm. （3） The urbanization level, the water and soil loss control, the saline-alkali land management and the land pollution prevention should be the key focus of the regulation of cultivated land resource security in Heilongjiang Province.