个体与区域变量对公民选举参与的影响——基于8506份中国公民有效数据的分析

An HLM Test about the Influence of Individual and Regional Factors on Electoral Participation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of 8506 Chinese Citizens

在县、乡人大代表选举研究中,影响选民参与的因素及其作用机制是重要的研究议题。本研究整合个体和区域两个水平的相关因素,通过在北京、天津、黑龙江、浙江、山东、湖北、安徽、陕西、甘肃和广西壮族自治区等10个省、直辖市、自治区的问卷调查,获得8506份中国公民的有效数据,并采用多层线性模型技术对大样本嵌套结构数据进行分析。分析结果显示:个体水平因素对选民在县、乡人大代表选举中的参与行为具有显著的预测作用,而这一预测作用存在显著的区域间差异。具体而言,在个体水平上,个体特征因素(年龄、个人收入、政治面貌、户籍类型等)和政治参与心理(意愿和效能感)对选民在县、乡人大代表选举中的参与行为差异具有显著的预测作用;在区域水平上,地市一级的GDP、就业状况和公共财政预算收入等因素对选民在县、乡人大代表选举中的参与行为差异具有显著的预测作用。

It is an important research topic that what are the influencing factors of voters' participation and its mechanism of action in the election process of County & Township People's Congress member. On the basis of integrating the individual and area level factors,the present study used questionnaire survey method and obtained 8506 data from the different regions throughout China's Mainland,and the large sample data with nested structure were analyzed by hierarchical linear model. The HLM analysis revealed that these factors of the individual level significantly predicted voters' participation behavior in the county & Township People's Congress election,but there were regional level variations among these effects. Specifically,at the individual level,the individual characteristic variables( age,income,political affiliation,household type,etc.) and psychological variables of political participation( intention and efficacy) have significant effects on differences of voters' participation behavior in the election of county & Township People's Congress; At the regional level,there are some variables( GDP,employment and public budget income,etc.) at the municipal level that they have significant effects on differences of voters' participation behavior in the election of county & Township People's Congress.