从评估到监测:社会稳定风险应对的新策略

From Assessment to Monitoring:A New Strategy to Cope with Social Stability Risk

当下各类影响社会稳定的事件频发,迫切要求加强对社会稳定风险的管理。目前我国政府对社会稳定风险的管理主要集中于建立和完善重大决策社会稳定风险评估机制,然而实践成效尚有不足,一些被评估为低风险的政策,实施过程中却引发了严重的群体性事件。其根由在于,不仅政策决策阶段可能孕育社会稳定风险,政策执行阶段本身也有可能不断酝酿和产生新的社会稳定风险。因此,社会稳定风险管理有必要延伸至对政策执行的风险监测。社会稳定风险监测机制的核心是通过监测政策对象态度等因素,预测影响社会稳定事件发生的可能,以便及时提供预警信息,防范和阻遏各类影响社会稳定事件的发生。

In recent years, to respond to the new normal situation that all kinds of events affecting social stability happen frequently, social stability risk assessment mechanism in major policy decision-making has been the core strategy in the policy requirement of the central government and policy practices of local governments. However, this mechanism has not achieved the expected effectiveness. The main reason is that the policy implementation itself also produces a lot of social stability risks that could not be completely predicted and prevented in the decision-making phase. Therefore, an effective social stability risk management system must extend to risk monitoring in policy implementation phase. The core of a social stability risk monitoring mechanism is to predict all kinds of events affecting social stability by monitoring the attitude of policy audiences, and to provide warning information in order to prevent and deter the events.