世界经济增长的长期趋势与供给侧改革

The Trend of Global Economic Growth and the Supply-Side Reform

该文以中国和美国等世界主要经济体的GDP变量组成全球宏观经济的协整系统,基于长期协整关系分解中国和美国等世界主要经济体的长期增长趋势与短期周期波动,再进一步运用因子模型提取世界经济周期因子。协整检验的结果表明,中国与美国等世界主要经济体具有长期的共同增长趋势,而提取的世界经济周期因子可以解释中国经济周期波动的53%,说明世界经济增长具有很强的长期和短期协同关系。现阶段中国和美国等世界主要经济体的长期趋势增长率出现了明显的下滑,其中2012年至2015年中国年均潜在经济增长率下降为7.16%。为应对金融危机,中国与世界主要经济体出台了大规模的经济刺激政策,促进了短期需求并形成周期成分,但并没有逆转随机趋势的长期下行。由此说明加强有效的供给侧改革,增强经济潜在增长率,应该是中国与世界主要经济体宏观调控的新常态。

The paper investigates the long term trend and business cycle of China,USA and other major economies based on the co-integration system,and then extracts a common world business cycle factor.The results show that China and other major economies share common long term growth trend and the world business cycle factor can explain 53% of the cyclical fluctuation in China.The long term economic growth rates of the global major economies have declined recently with Chinese dropping annual potential economic growth rate by 7.16% from 2012to2015.To conclude,the effective supply side reform is necessary in order to promote long term economic growth.