劳动合同法、市场活力与劳动者离职倾向的关系研究——基于CHIP数据的分析

A Study on the Relationship among the Labor Contract Law,Market Vitality,and the Intention of Labor Turnover:Based on CHIP data

劳动力市场的活力和劳动者的自由流动有密切的关系。为了考察我国《劳动合同法》对劳动者自由流动以及劳动力市场活力的影响,该文采用CHIP数据中的城镇住户调查数据进行了相应的分析,结果表明:《劳动合同法》实施后,我国劳动者总体的离职倾向有所降低,但是劳动者个体的离职倾向因其自身特征的不同而呈现出一定的差异。为了进一步确定劳动者离职倾向与《劳动合同法》实施之间的关系,该文利用双差分方法进行了考察,发现:《劳动合同法》的实施确实显著降低了劳动者的离职倾向,并且这个结论通过了稳健性检验。由于劳动者离职倾向的降低可能会降低劳动力市场的活力,该文最后针对劳动合同法的就业保护机制提出了相应的改革建议。

With the CHIP data,the paper analyzes that the intention of labor turnover decreased in different extent after the enforcement of the labor contract law.With difference-indifferences method,the analysis and robustness shows that the law reduced the intention of labor turnover significantly.Because the decreasing of the intention of labor turnover might harm the vitality of labor market,the paper suggests on the employment protective mechanism of the labor contract law.