第三产业内部层次在城镇化发展中的作用——基于鲁苏浙闽粤五省的实证研究

The Role of the Internal Levels of Tertiary Industry in Urbanizaion Development——Based on Panel Data of Five Provinces

发达国家经验表明,城镇化水平越高,经济综合发展水平越高。与此同时,第三产业的蓬勃发展也是经济发展的大势所趋。笔者运用鲁苏浙闽粤五省2005年~2012年第三产业细分层次和城镇化率等基础数据,建立面板数据模型分析得出第三产业各层次对城镇化具有不同程度的拉动作用：第二层次对城镇化的推动作用最大,约为第一层次的2.4~3.3倍,而第一层次对城镇化的推动作用是第四层次的1.3~1.8倍;第三层次表现出对城镇化的负效应。为此,应发挥传统服务业优势,大力发展现代服务业,正确把握政府角色,更好地发挥城镇化引领作用;完善外商投资优惠政策,加大进出口贸易支持和对第三产业的金融支持等。

According to the experience of developed countries,the higher the urbanization level,the level of comprehensive economic development is much higher. Meanwhile,the vigorous development of the tertiary industry is the main stream of the economic development. By using the underlying data of the subdivision levels of tertiary industry and the urbanization rate,the establishment of panel data model shows that each level of tertiary industry plays a part in driving urbanization in varying degrees： the promoting function of the second level for urbanization is the largest,it＇s about 2. 4 ~ 3. 3 times of the first level,and the first level is 1. 3 ~ 1. 8 times of the fourth level; the third level shows a negative effect on urbanization. Therefore,we should give full play to the advantages of traditional service industry,develop modern service industry vigorously,promote the government to play a leading role in urbanization,perfect the preferential policies for foreign investment,and give financial support for the import and export trade and the tertiary industry.