增值税转型对我国出口二元边际的影响——基于引力模型的实证分析

The Impact of Value-Added-Tax Reform on Export Binary Margin——An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

基于新新贸易理论的异质性企业框架,在相关领域经典文献的基础上,笔者利用中国对外贸易数据库中2004年~2013年的跨国贸易数据,从扩展边际和集约边际的角度考察了中国增值税转型改革对出口行为的影响。研究发现,增值税由生产性向消费性的转型改革,在集约和扩展两个边际上均对出口产生了显著影响,且影响更多地通过集约边际来体现。分地区回归结果显示,增值税改革对出口的影响主要作用于中国与发展中国家之间的贸易,与发达国家之间的贸易并未受到明显的影响。

Based on the New-New trade Model of heterogeneous enterprise framework and the classic literatures in related fields,this paper intended to explore the effects of China＇s Value-Added-Tax（ VAT） reform on export from the sights of both extensive margin and intensive margin by using 2004-2013 foreign trade data in China. The study shows that with transition of VAT from production type to consumption type,VAT demonstrates remarkable influence on export on the two margins. These influences are mostly reflected through the intensive margin. The regression results based on regional samples show that the VAT reform effects mainly exist in trade with developing countries,and not significant in trade with developed countries.