媒体报道与通货膨胀——基于百度“媒体指数”的实证研究

Media Coverage and Inflation——A Study Based on Baidu Media Index

笔者首先将贝叶斯理论引入Morris和Shin的"Beauty-contest"模型,从微观视角出发研究了媒体报道对通货膨胀的影响,研究发现,媒体报道通过贝叶斯后验机制引发市场过度反应,加剧了通货膨胀。进一步,基于百度搜索引擎的通货膨胀"媒体指数",通过SVAR动态回归分析表明关于"通货膨胀"的媒体报道能够有效促进实际通货膨胀,并且媒体报道对通货膨胀的贡献约为20%。研究认为政府在治理通货膨胀时需要考虑与媒体机构的沟通合作,媒体在报道关于通货膨胀的新闻时也需要更加理性客观,避免造成经济波动。

Firstly,the paper introduces Bayesian theory into a Morris and Shin＇s ＂Beauty-contest＂model to study the correlation of media coverage and inflation from a micro perspective. The research demonstrates that through Bayesian posterior mechanism,media coverage causes market overreaction and thus enhances inflation. Furthermore,based on Baidu ＂media index＂data,SVAR analysis shows inflation increase with media coverage,and media coverage contributes about 20% to inflation. Therefore,the study shows that government should communicate with the media when controlling inflation,on the other hand,the media should also be more relation and objective to avoid economic fluctuations when reporting inflation.