碳税与区域经济协调发展——基于分位数回归的实证研究

Carbon Tax and Coordinated Development of Regional Economy——An Empirical Study Based on the Quantile Regression Approach

以碳税的征收如何最大限度地兼顾区域经济协调发展为出发点,通过分位数回归方法,考察了开征碳税对全国及东中西和东北四大区域经济协调发展的影响效应。结果表明:就全国而言,征收碳税将显著地降低区域经济协调发展水平,且其影响效应在条件分布的不同位置存在明显的差异性。扩大人力资本规模、促进区域贸易往来能够削弱开征碳税对区域经济协调发展的负面影响;开征碳税对东部和东北地区的经济协调发展存在负面影响,且在东北地区的负面影响最为明显,而对中部和西部地区的作用效果则恰好相反。据此,从实施阶段性、差异化碳税税率等角度提出对策建议。

The effect of introducing carbon tax on the coordinated development of national and regional economy was explored by applying the quantile regression approach for the purpose of maximizing its positive impact.The results indicated that:as to China in the whole,introducing carbon tax has a significantly negative effect on promoting the level of coordinated development of regional economy,but enhancing human capital scale and reinforcing regional trading could alleviate the negative effect;as to the four regions,introducing carbon tax has a significantly negative effect on promoting the level of coordinated development of regional economy in the eastern and northeastern regions,and the negative effect in the northeastern region is much more serious,whereas introducing carbon tax shows a positive effect in the central and western regions.Finally,some relevant policies and suggestions like carrying out periodical and differentiated carbon tax were proposed based on the results.