我国外汇储备增长和通货膨胀关系的实证研究——基于2001—2015年数据的检验

An empirical study on the relationship between foreign exchange reserve growth and inflation in China——Based on the test data of the year of 2001-2015

以2001—2015年的消费者价格指数(CPI)、货币供应量(M2)以及外汇储备(FR)为基础,通过格兰杰因果关系检验、单位根检验、协整检验及VECM模型,对外汇储备、货币供应量与通货膨胀的关系进行计量分析,研究发现,在长时期内,外汇储备和增长的货币供应会加剧通货膨胀;但在短时间内,增加的外汇储备不是造成通货膨胀的主要原因。因此,应进一步稳定汇率的变化范围,改变国际贸易的方式,适当减少外汇储备来确保我国通货膨胀率处于可控水平,促进国民经济持续健康发展。

From 2001 to 2015 consumer price index（CPI）, money supply（M2） and foreign exchange reserves（FR） as the foundation, through the Grainger causality test, unit root test, cointegration test and VECM model of foreign exchange reserves, the relationship between money supply and inflation research found the quantitative analysis, in the long term, foreign exchange reserves and money supply growth will exacerbate inflation; but in a short period of time, the main reason for the increase in foreign exchange reserves is not inflation. So we should further change the scope of exchange rate stability, changing the way of international trade, appropriate to reduce the foreign exchange reserves to ensure China＇s inflation rate is controllable level, promote the healthy development of the national economy.