基于灰色GM(1,1)联合预测模型的企业产值评估

Assess of Enterprise Value Based on Grey GM(1,1) Forecasting Combined Model

针对企业单位生产总值的预测问题,利用预测模型估计未来企业的发展规模以及经济能力。考虑到传统回归模型的不足,在灰色关联度和GM(1,1)模型的基础上提出了灰色G(1,1)联合预测模型。从灰色关联度出发寻找数据之间的关系,预测及加权生成模型关联系数,从而建立预测模型。最后根据2006—2012年企业生产的相关数据资料,利用该模型预测企业2013年的生产总值,预测结果说明该模型在预测方面是有效的。

This paper used the predictive model to estimate the scale of future development and economic capability about the prediction of gross production enterprises. Considering the shortcomings of traditional regression model,grey G（ 1,1） forecasting combined model gray correlation was raised on the basis of grey correlation degree and GM（ 1,1） model. We found the relationship between the data by gray correlation,and forecasted and weighted correlation coefficient in order to establish predictive models. Finally,according to the production data in 2006—2012,we used the predictive model to predict the corporate GDP in 2013,and the results showed the effectiveness of the model prediction.