基于千米格网的地震应急灾情预评估数据开发

DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY DISASTER INFORMATION PRE-EVALUATION DATA BASED ON KM GRID

震后地震应急灾情的准确、快速评估(盲估)是有效地震应急决策的关键之一。为提高应急灾情评估的速度与准确性,文中提出开发基于千米格网技术的地震应急灾情预评估数据。阐述了预评估数据计算模型,包括承灾体数据、灾情计算用致灾因子和计算公式。介绍了千米格网地震应急灾情预评估数据计算的算法,该算法通过对计算参数的空间化和地图代数的应用实现。最后论述了预评估数据在地震应急灾情评估与应急救援中的应用,并以近期中国大陆发生的2次实际破坏性地震为实验案例,展示和检验了其应用。实验结果表明,千米格网地震应急灾情预评估数据能较好地提升灾情评估速度和准确度,还能精细地展示灾情的空间分布,为地震应急指挥和救援提供参考。

After an earthquake,earthquake emergency response and rescue is one of the effective ways to reduce casualties from the earthquake. Earthquake emergency disaster information is one of crucial factors to effectively guide the rescue work. However,there is a ＂black box effect＂on the emergency disaster information acquisition after an earthquake, which means real-time earthquake disaster information is insufficient. Hazard estimates are usually used as a substitute for the real-time disaster information in the ＂black box ＂ period. However,it is subject to the accuracy and speed of the estimation.The development of the km grid technology provides good prospect to solve this problem. The paper suggests to develop earthquake disaster information pre-estimation data with the support of the km grid technology. The definition and source of the pre-estimation data are introduced and its possibility in improving the estimation speed and accuracy are analyzed theoretically.Then,we elaborate the calculation model of the pre-estimation data. The framework of the model includes disaster-bearing body data, disaster-causing factors used in calculation and calculation formula. The disaster-bearing body data in km grid format are introduced,including population data in km grid format and building data in km grid format. Then the four elements of the earthquake（ earthquake occurrence time,earthquake location,earthquake magnitude and focal depth） are selected as disaster-causing factors for calculation. Map algebra method is used to realize the calculation model in which calculation parameters are associated with base map in the km grid format.So the pre-estimation data are developed by python and Arc GIS,which includes building damage dataset（ 100 layers）,death toll dataset（ 10 layers） and direct economic loss dataset（ 5 layers）.Finally,the pre-estimation data based method for earthquake emergency disaster information estimation is presented. With the support of this method,two real earthquake cases are used to validate the effect of the pre-estimation data. The validation results show the pre-estimation data can not only significantly improve the speed of the estimation but also greatly improve the accuracy of the estimation. Another good result is found in the validation process that with the support of the preestimation data,the estimated result can display the spatial distribution of the disaster information,which will effectively aid earthquake emergency response and rescues.