2015年9月2～3日宁夏区域性降水成因分析

Causes of Regional Rainfall in Ningxia from Sep. 2, 2015 to Sep. 3, 2015

利用欧洲中心数值预报高空形势场、地面形势场、物理量场以及自动气象站观测资料,对宁夏2015年9月2-3日一次区域性降水天气过程的成因进行分析。分析表明：此次降水天气是在有利的大尺度环流背景下,高低层天气系统共同作用产生的。500 hPa短波槽、南支槽和700 hPa切变线、低空急流以及地面冷锋是本次过程的主要影响系统。低层辐合高层辐散的散度场配置促进了上升运动的持续发展。通过对数值预报产品检验发现,本地wrf对此次降水过程的预报效果最好。

With European central points forecasting high-level and ground circulation patterns, physical parameter fields and observational data from automatic meteorological station, this paper analyzed causes of regional rainfall in Ningxia from Sep.2, 2015 to Sep. 3, 2015. The results showed that under the large scale circulation conditions, this rainfall formed in the combination of high and low level weather system, which mainly contained short wave troughs of 500 h Pa, south westerly trough, shear line of 700 h Pa, low-level jet stream and surface cold front. The divergence field of low level convergence and high level divergence promoted the continuous development of ascending motion. By testing the products forecasting data, the local wrf had the best effect on forecasting during the rainfall.