科技脆弱性内涵、评价与调控——基于山东省的实证研究

Science and Technology Vulnerability's Connotation,Evaluation and Regulation Based on the Empirical Research in Shandong Province

把脆弱性研究范式引入科技评价领域,在分析科技脆弱性内涵基础上,从敏感性和恢复性两方面建立指标体系,运用函数模型法对2000—2014年山东省科技脆弱性进行综合评价,得到如下结论:敏感性保持在较低水平且变化趋势不明显;恢复性总体呈现持续上升趋势;脆弱性经历了一个"先上升、再下降、后上升"的演变过程,以降低为主导趋势,科技系统遭受的不利影响和损害可能性较低。根据科技系统自身特点,从降低科技敏感性和提高科技恢复性两方面提出调控措施。

Vulnerability research paradigm is applied to science and technology evaluation based on vulnerability＇ s connotation. Evaluation indicator system is built from sensibility and recoverability. Science and technology vulnerability of Shandong Province in 2000 -2014 is evaluated. The results show as follows： （ 1 ） Sensibility index kept at a lower level and the change trend was not pronounced; （2） Recoverability index presented an increasing trend; （3） Vulnerability index experienced an evolution process of ＂rise, decline and rise＂ and the major trend was declining, which explained science and technology＇ s negative influence and damage probability was low. The regulation measures were put forward from reducing science and technology vulnerability and increasing science and technology recoverability.