基于纵–横向误差匹配的联合降损基线计算方法

Calculation Method of Combined Loss Reduction Baseline Based on Matching Vertical and Horizontal Errors

电网降损节能效果的量化评估需在统计期内将降损措施实施前后的电网损耗水平相比较。降损措施实施后,实施前的电网损耗水平即基线便难以确定,提高基线计算精度成为降损量化评估中亟待解决的问题。根据国际节能规程对降损基线定义,首先提出基于马尔科夫链的纵向降损基线改进计算方法和基于指数平滑法的横向降损基线改进计算方法,以降低计算误差;然后进行两种改进方法之间的参数匹配,并将匹配后的计算结果加权结合,得到纵–横向联合降损基线,互补纵向和横向网损数据规律性差异,进一步提高计算精度。算例分析验证了该方法能够有效降低统计期内降损基线的计算误差。

The quantified evaluation of reducing power grid losses needs to compare the grid losses between pre-and post-implementation of the measures to reduce the grid losses in a specified cycle. However, when those measures are performed, it can hardly determine the grid losses without those measures, i.e., the baseline of reducing losses. Therefore, an enhanced method to improve the accuracy of the baseline is required for the quantified evaluation of reducing losses. According to the IPMVP definition of the baseline, firstly the accuracies of the Markov Chain（MC） and exponentialsmoothing-based methods were improved in obtaining the vertical and horizontal baselines of reducing losses. Then, parameters in the two improved methods were matched, and calculation results were combined with different weight factors to form a final loss reduction baseline considering both vertical and horizontal orientations. Hence, the final baseline complements the regular difference between the vertical and horizontal data and enhances the precise of the proposed methods. The numerical studies show that the proposed method exhibits a remarkable reduction of errors in determining the baseline of reducing losses during the specified cycle.