双边政治关系如何影响对外直接投资--基于二元边际和投资成败视角

How Do Bilateral Political Relations Affect Outward Direct Investment——Based on a Perspective of Binary Margins and Investment Failure

关于双边政治关系对母国对外直接投资的影响,以往研究往往忽略了对外直接投资的结构性特征和成败因素。本文基于2005—2014年中国企业层面对外直接投资数据,实证分析发现:友好双边政治关系有助于促进企业对外投资规模、多元化程度和投资成功率的提高,但存在一定的政策工具和行业差异。与长期性的正式外交关系相比,短期性的高层互访和非正式的友好城市交流,对于企业投资规模和多元化程度的促进效应更强,尤其是友好城市交流能够显著提升企业对外投资成功率,而双边政治冲突则对企业投资产生了显著的抑制效应;在不同行业中,对于体现国家战略意图的资源获取型行业,友好双边政治关系具有显著的促进效应,但对于容易遭受双边政治形势冲击的基础设施行业,双边政治关系并未起到一定的促进效应。因而,企业海外投资要善于利用双边政治关系的积极效应,密切关注双边政治关系变化并建立预警机制,通过构筑企业自身所有权优势,促进对外投资发展。同时,在国家"一带一路"战略实施中,要积极利用现有双多边合作机制,兼顾企业海外投资增速与成效,发挥好双边政治关系对企业投资成效的保障作用。

Existing literature on the effects of bilateral political relations on a home country＇s outward direct investment（ODI） often ignore structural characteristics and performances of ODI. In this paper, using China＇s firm- level ODI data in 2005--2014, we conduct empirical analysis and find that bilateral political relations not only help promote the scale and the diversification degree of enterprises＇ ODI, but also increase the its success probability, while there are certain differences across policy tools and industries. Compared with the long-term formal diplomatic relations, the above effects are stronger with short-term high-level official＇s visits and informal friendly city exchanges. In contrast, bilateral political conflicts have a significantly inhibitory effect on enterprises＇ ODI. Across industries, the bilateral political relations play a stronger promoting effect in resources industries＇ OI）I, while it does not have a significant promoting effect in infrastructure industry, which is more vulnerable to bilateral political situation and local governments. Meanwhile, in the implementation of the ＂the Belt and Road＂ strategy, it is supposed to use the existing bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanism as a safeguard for enterprises＇ ODI.