重庆市主要电子废弃物产生量预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Major Electronic Waste Generation in Chongqing

以电视机、电冰箱、洗衣机、空调器和家用电脑为主要测算对象,利用BP神经网络模型预测重庆市电子产品的保有量,在此基础上利用市场供给A模型预测重庆市的电子废弃物产生量。结果表明:未来10年,电视机、电冰箱、洗衣机、空调器、家用电脑等重庆市主要电子废弃物产生总量呈现出快速增长趋势,但个体差异明显,且废弃物产生量远远超出现有企业的处理能力。建议重庆市针对各类电子废弃物未来增长趋势和特征对应发展专业化电子废弃物处置企业,重点关注电冰箱和空调器的回收处理,考虑不确定性因素的影响。

This paper primarilystudy on the television sets,refrigerators,washing machines,air conditioners and home computers,and predicts the electronics holdings in Chongqing with BP neural network model. Based on the this,this study forecast the generation and weight of electronic waste of2015—2025 in Chongqing with market-supply Model A. The results show thatthere will be a rapid growth of main electronic waste of television sets,refrigerators,washing machines,air conditioners and home computersin Chongqing in next 10 years,but the wastes are far beyond the processing capacity of the factories. Facing the challenge of increased electronic waste,it suggests that the Chongqing government should improve e-waste recycling in the development of specialized electronic waste disposal companies,focus on recycling refrigerators and air conditioners,and consider the impact of uncertainties,etc.