农民工市民化对房地产的影响

Study of the Influence of Migrant Workers' Citizenization on Real Estate

化解房地产库存是2016年经济社会发展五大任务之一,农民工作为中央政府扩大住房总需求的目标群体,释放其住房需求对化解库存压力、缓解开发商现金流短缺、调节库存结构性过剩等方面有积极作用。但农民工市民化在化解高库存时会带来改变房地产供需链条、可能引发新一轮地产扩张、延缓城市转型、农民工融资能力有限影响去库存效果等问题和风险。因而,针对农民工市民化,政府应采取更加温和的刺激方案、扩大农民工就业、成立专门提供住房金融服务的政策性金融机构、利用互联网金融方式等措施化解房地产库存。

Real estate destocking is one of the five tasks of economic and social development in 2016.Migrant workers,as the target group of the government’s expansion of overall housing demand,can help to resolve the inventory pressure,relieve developers’ cash flow,and adjustthe structural excess inventory. But the migrant workers’ resolution of the inventory pressure may change the real estate supply chain,trigger a new round of real estate expansion,and slow city transformation. In addition,the limited financing abilityof migrantworkers may influence the effectiveness of destocking. In response to these potential risks of migrant workers ’citizenization,the government should adopt a moderate stimulation policy and expandmigrant workersemployment,set up policy-oriented specialized financial institutions providing housing financial services,and make use of the Internet financing to resolve inventory.