龙江森工林区森林固碳量核算及碳汇潜力评价

Analysis of Forestry Carbon Capacity and Forestry Carbon Mitigation Potential in State-Owned Forest Area of Heilongjiang Province

基于森林蓄积量换算因子法与灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对龙江森工林区森林固碳量和碳汇潜力进行核算与预测。结果表明:天保工程的实施和重点国有林区全面停止商业性采伐对森工林区的碳汇效果产生重大影响。截至2015年天保工程累计增汇2.85 Tg(1 Tg=1012g);到2020年,停伐政策支持下新增碳汇1.27 Tg。龙江森工林区现有森林碳储量为986 Tg,2030年碳储量将达到1 158 Tg,碳汇潜力巨大。

Based on the essence theory of forests in carbon sequestration and using the theory of grey GM （1, 1） model, this paper estimates the capacity and the carbon mitigation potential in the state- owned forest area of Heilongjiang province. The results showed that the Natural Forest Protection Project and the ending entirety deforestation policy have a huge carbon storage. By the end of 2015, the in- crease accumulation of forest is about 2. 85 Tg. By 2020, the increase accumulation of forest is about 1.3 Tg. The reserves on carbon sequestration is about 986 Tg, by 2030, the number will be 1 158 Tg.