制度质量、技术和人力资本投入与“资源诅咒”:基于我国省际面板数据的实证机理分析

Institutional Quality, Technology and Human Capital Investment and "Resource Curse" :Based on the Empirical Analysis of China's Provincial Panel Data

利用30个省际面板数据,研究了"资源诅咒"现象的内在机理。基于门限回归模型,估计了制度质量、技术和人力资本投入3因素在自然资源与经济增长关系中的临界值;利用Hausman检验分析了门槛变量的影响效应,并且进一步探讨了自然资源通过制度质量、技术和人力资本投入对经济增长做产生的间接效应。结果表明:1)自然资源和经济发展之间显著的存在基于制度质量、技术和人力资本投入水平的单门槛效应,制度、技术和人力资本的提高可以有效地改善资源依赖对经济增长的负效应;2)阻碍地区经济增长的可能因素是资源依赖度,而丰裕的资源能够促进地区经济的增长;3)技术和人力资本投入是自然资源阻碍我国经济增长的主要传导途径。

From 1960s, more and more economists have noted that the relationship between natural resources and economic growth was not a linear positive effect. However, some negative examples like ＂curse of gold＂ and ＂oil curse＂ emerged in resource-rich regions and countries such as Congo, Iraq, Venezuela and so on. These negative examples made some economists believe that in the long term natural resources could hurt the development of economy, thus resulting in ＂resource curse＂. However, it can not be denied that resources endowment is affecting economic growth gradually. At present, there are three main ideas about the relationship between natural resources and economic growth in academics： 1. natural resource is critical to economic development; 2. conditional resource ＂curse＂; 3. natural resource ＂curse＂ on economic development. The paper examines the inner mechanism of ＂resource curse＂ by using 30 provincial panel data. Firstly, we find the threshold variables that reflect the causal relationship based on the threshold regression model. The critical values of three factors include institutional quality, technology and human capital ＂investment in the relationship between natural resources and economic growth. The empirical study finds that threshold effect may exist between natural resources and economic development, which is based on institutional quality, technology and the level of human capital investment. They can effectively improve the negative effect of resource dependence on economic growth. Secondly, the article analyses the impact of other factors on threshold variable and economic growth by using the Hausman test and comparative analysis of the model effect. Finally, the model is estimated by a fixed effect data estimation method. The empirical test shows that institutional quality, technology and human capital investment have significant threshold- effect. The other factors influencing the economic growth, such as capital stock and the reasonable industrial structure, have a positive role in promoting economic growth./n some countries that are highly dependent on resource areas, more exports of primary resource will adversely affect the economy. Using the generalized least squares method to estimate resource dependence on system level of quality, technology and human capital investment, we discuss the indirect effect of natural resources on economic growth through institutional quality, technology and human capital investment. The empirical results show that technology and human capital investment are the main obstacles of natural resources in economic development. On the other hand, natural resources dependence tends to improve institutional quality, and promote regional economic growth. The results illustrate that： 1） There exists a significant single threshold effect between natural resources and economic growth based on institutional quafity, technology and human capital investment level. These three variables can effectively improve the negative effect of resource dependence on economic growth; 2） The resource dependence may hinder regional economic growth, and abundant resources can promote the growth of regional economy; 3） Technology and human capital investment are great alternatives to natural resources hindering economic growth.