我国中等城市财政运行的可持续分析——基于106个地级市2003-2013年的数据

A Analysis of Medium-sized Cities' Fiscal Sustainability in Our Country——Based on the Data of 106 Prefecture-level Cities from 2003 to 2013

中等城市是我国未来工业化和城市化的重要承接载体,在现代化战略全局中具有重要作用。本文基于政府跨期预算约束的理论框架,对我国中等城市2003-2013年期间的财政收支数据进行面板协整分析。实证结果表明中等城市的财政收入和财政支出之间确实存在长期协整关系,但财政可持续性较弱。而不合理的转移支付制度、民生投入的增长以及庞大的地方政府债务对财政收支差额的影响较为显著,是造成可持续性较弱的主要风险因素。

Medium-sized cities are the important carriers to undertake industrialization and urbanization of our country in the future, playing an important role in the modernization strategy. Based on the government＇s inter-temporal budget constraint theoretical framework, this article makes panel cointegration analysis of the revenue and expenditure data of medium-sized cit- ies from 2003 to 2013. The empirical results show that there is long-term eointegration relationship between medium-sized cities＇ fiscal revenues and expenditures, but sustainability is weak. Then it is concluded that the unreasonable transfer payment system, the growing input of people＇s livelihood and the vast scale of local government＇s debt have a significant influence on the imbalance between revenues and expenditures. They are the main risk factors causing weak fiscal sustainahility.