基于半定量方法的深水海底管道应急维修风险评估研究

Risk Analysis of the Emergency Repairing for Deep-sea Pipeline Using Semi-quantitative Solution

随着我国南海深水油气田的开发利用,深水海底管道维修研究成了行业关心的热点问题之一。在调研国内外相关企业维修技术的基础上,形成了500 m和1 500 m海底管道维修工艺流程。根据DNV船级社海洋工程相关规范,提出了深水海底管道维修的半定量风险评估方法,开发了相应的风险评估软件系统。最后,分析比较了500 m和1500 m水深海底管道的机械连接器应急维修流程,应用专家打分法开展了风险分析,并推荐了相关风险控制的措施。

The research on the emergency repair for the deep-sea pipeline is one of the concern topics for the domestic offshore oil engineering, especially when the gas/oil exploration is moved to the South China Sea. The emergency repairing procedures for the subsea pipelines （flat tube）under 500 m and 1 500 m water depth are developed after the state-of-the -art of relevant techniques are investigated from the domestic and oversea companies. Risk analysis using semi-quantitative assessment solution is suggested according to relevant definitions in DNV rules. Then one code is developed for the risk analysis. Repairing examples using the mechanical connector under 500m and 1 500 m water depth are given. The risk levels are assessed using expert scoring method. Finally, the suggestions are recommended to reduce the probability of accidents.