中国铝土矿进口格局“大洗牌”

Supply shuffle in Chinese bauxite imports

在新供应伙伴的支持下,中国铝土矿进口量看起来又将逐步恢复。自2010年起,中国每年铝土矿进口量在全球铝土矿贸易总量中所占比重平均达到60%。尽管期间主要来源地曾数次中断供应,2014年印尼的原矿出口禁令和目前马来西亚暂停开采所导致的出口中断均严重影响了中国铝土矿进口的主要供应链,但是,在新供应伙伴的支持下,中国铝土矿进口量看起来又将逐步恢复。

Annual shipments into China have accounted for an average 60% of global bauxite imports since 2010, despite several major supply disruptions. The bauxite export bans introduced in Indonesia in 2014 and now in Malaysia have both severely hampered China's primary supply chains. However once again, Chinese bauxite imports appear to be recovering with the support of alternative trade partners. China accounts for around 3% of global bauxite reserves and produces over half of the world's alumina. However, inefficiency has resulted in a high dependency on bauxite imports. In 2013, shipments of bauxite into China surged 79% to a record 72 mt, boosted by stockpiling ahead of Indonesia's unprocessed mineral export ban in January 2014. The ban then contributed to a 49% plunge in Chinese seaborne bauxite imports, to 37 mt in 2014. However, having established new trade partners, the country's bauxite imports jumped 54% to 56 mt in 2015. So, while Chinese alumina production fell 2% y-o-y to 29 mt in 1H 2016, there have been firm signs of recovery in recent months. This trend is expected to support Chinese bauxite import growth in full year 2016, even despite the loss of Malaysia as a primary supplier. In the long run, China is expected to secure bauxite supply, with a ramp up in Australian and Guinean output, as well as the additions of further alternative sources. Overall, given the country's track record for resilience, the outlook for expansion in Chinese bauxite imports appears to be fairly robust.