中国潜在风力发电量的年际变化

Interannual Variability of Wind Energy Potential in China

结合观测资料和数值模拟结果,基于GE 2.5 MW风机的功率曲线,分析1982—2006年中国大陆陆地上潜在风电量的年际变化。结果表明,Reg CM3模式风速、观测插值风速和两者平均风速对应的25年平均年潜在风电量分别为每年25,2.5和11 PWh,均超过中国2030年预期电力需求的20%(2 PWh)。三者年潜在风电量的相对标准差分别为3%,8%和5%,相对极差分别为15%,33%和23%,年际变化较大。由于风电和电力需求的季节性不匹配以及风电较大的年际变化,若仅依靠风电,在夏季容易出现电力缺口,意味着需要大量后备发电机组,这将提升发电总成本,降低风电减排效益。

Based on the combined data of observations, RegCM3 model and the power curve of GE 2.5 MW wind turbine, the interannual variability of wind energy potential （WEP） over 1982-2006 in China is analyzed. It is calculated that the WEP of RegCM3 wind, observation-adjusted wind and their mean wind is 25, 2.5 and 11 PWh/a, all more than 20% of China＇s expected electricity demand in 2030 （2 PWh/a）. Their relative standard deviations of yearly WEP are about 3%, 8% and 5%, and their relative ranges of yearly WEP are 15%, 33% and 23%. Because of the seasonal variation of wind energy and electricity demand, power deficit could occur in summer if relying on wind energy only, resulting in a need of huge backup capacity that reduces the economic benefit and emission benefit.