中国各省区(市)城市化进程中碳排放变化特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of Carbon Emissions and the Influence Factors in the Process of Urbanization among Chinese Provinces

以工业能源消耗和居民生活能源消耗产生的碳排放作为研究对象,用建成区占总面积的比例、非农工业人口和城镇人口分别占总人口的比例等3个指标来衡量城市化率,分析1995—2012年间城市化过程中碳排放的地区差异及影响因素,得到以下结论。1)全国的碳排量以及人均碳排放量在1995—2012年间整体上呈上涨趋势,可分为缓慢增长、快速增长和增速下降3个阶段。单位产值的碳排放呈整体递减趋势,递减速度变缓。2)各省份碳排放随城市化率增加的区域差异明显,北京、上海、天津均是碳排放相对较低和城市化率相对较高的地区。3)从3种单位城市化率的碳排放来看,绝大多数省市出现2000年下降之后再上升的趋势。内蒙古自治区单位土地城市化率的碳排放最高,单位人口城市化率(非农业人口比重和城镇人口比重)碳排放最高的是河北、河南和山东。4)城市化过程中碳排放的影响因素也存在一定的地域差异,对各省份而言,能源结构对碳排放影响有限,能源强度对各省区碳排放的贡献为负,产业结构对碳排放的贡献有正有负,而经济水平和人口规模对碳排放的贡献几乎均为正。研究结果可为我国区域碳排放削减的策略制定提供科学依据。

The article analyzes carbon emissions from industrial and living departments from 1995 to 2012, and urbanization rate is measured by three indicators, namely ratio of build-up area, ratio of non-agriculture population, and ratio of urban population. The results show that 1） the total amount of carbon emissions as well as the per capita carbon emissions is rising in 1995-2012, accordingly carbon emissions per unit of output present a decreasing trend. 2） In process of urbanization, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin have relatively lower carbon emissions and higher urbanization rates in urbanization stages. 3） The carbon emission of unit urbanization rate measured by three indicators show that most provinces present reduction trend till 2000 and then increase. Inner magnolia ranks the top in the carbon emission per urbanization rate 1. Hebei, Henan and Shandong rank the top in carbon emission per urbanization rate 2 and 3.4） In the view of provinces, energy structure has limited impacts on carbon emissions, energy intensity has negative effect, and industrial structure has both positive and negative effect while economic level and population size have positive effect for all provinces. The results can provide scientific reference for the regional carbon emission reduction strategy.