CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5

基于观测和再分析资料,利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征,但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海,集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上,与观测数据对比,模式模拟海温与Nino3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势,从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明,ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势,最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃,净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。

Based on observation and reanalysis data,the ability of 21CMIP5 models to simulate monthly,seasonal and interannual SSTs in the China seas are evaluated.The results show that the CMIP5 models can simulate the spatial distribution of SST in the China seas well but underestimate its magnitude.The SST difference between the multi-model ensemble and observations is significant in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.As to the interannual timescale,the simulation results and Nio3index is worse correlated than observation and Nino3 index.The SST in the China seas increases in 1960-2002,but changes to be stable in 2003.Among the 21CMIP5 models,ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1,HadGEM2-ES,IPSL-CM5 AMR,CMCC-CM,FGOALS-g2,CNRM-CM5-2and INMCM4 can simulate the SSTS in the China seas better.The trend of SST in the China seas is simulated based on ACCESS1.0,INMCM4,BCC-CSM1.1,IPSLCM5A-MR,CMCC-CM.Under RCP4.5,RCP8.5run,the warming trends of SST will continue in the following 100 years with a spatial average of 1.5℃ and 3.3℃ over the whole China seas.The major cause of SST warming in the East China Sea is sea surface net heat flux and the temperature advection.