基于CFD原理的架空输电线路故障概率估算方法

Assessment Method for Failure Probability of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on Computational Fluid Dynamics

针对雷击、风速、覆冰、污闪、鸟类接触、线路舞动和老化等对架空输电线路安全稳定运行的影响,对架空输电线路故障率预测模型进行探讨。首先将架空输电线路的故障率流态化,考虑各种不确定性因素影响,并加权优化相关的影响因子,以求解出其综合健康指数,同时修正输电线路的流态故障概率分布,以此建立受多因素影响的架空输电线路故障率预测模型;再由有限体积法(finite volume method,FVM)对该模型进行网格划分,并对其采用计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)原理模拟仿真,根据所得结果估算出具有高准确度的预测值。以IEEE9、IEEE30、IEEE57、IEEE118为实例进行计算和分析,结果表明所研究模型可以有效地提高线路故障率的预测精度,验证了CFD模拟仿真在求解架空输电线路失效率问题时的有效性。

In allusion to influence on safe and stable operation of overhead transmission lines by lightning, wind speed, icing, flashover, bird touch, line dancing, aging, and so on, this paper discusses failure rate forecasting model for overhead transmission lines. It firstly fluidizes failure rate of overhead transmission lines and considers influence of various uncertain factors, then conducts weighted optimization on related influencing factors so as to solve for comprehensive health index. Meanwhile, it modifies fluid failure probability distribution of transmission lines for establishing a forecasting model for failure rate of overhead transmission lines affected by various factors. Finite volume method （FVM） is used for meshing for this model as well as computational fluid dynamics （CFD） principle is applied for simulation calculation, and predicted values with high accuracy are finally assessed according to results obtained. By taking IEEE 9, IEEE 30, IEEE 57 and IEEE 118 systems for calculation and analysis, it expounds that this model can effectively improve failure rate forecasting precision, and proves feasibility of CFD simulation in solving the problem of failure rate of overhead transmission lines.