基于最大可支撑人口水资源承载能力评价分析

The maximum Sustainable Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources Evaluation

应用"承载人口数"方法定量研究了京、津、冀地区总的水资源所能承载的人口数量与经济发展规模。模型验证结果表明:在短期内,京、津、冀地区的水资源量人口承载能力富足,能缓解水资源供需矛盾;但从2025年后,由于该地区水资源量人口承载能力不足,则京、津、冀地区又重新陷入水资源匮乏时期。南水北调实施以后,京、津、冀地区水资源承载力获得了一定程度的增加,然而在人口增长的态势下,水资源承载人口几乎没有太大提升。基于此,在探索京、津、冀水资源短缺问题解决策略时,不能仅仅关注节水工程与调水工程问题,还需要将人口增长因素纳入其中,规避人口过量增加。否则,调水与节水所获取的成果,则可能会被过度增加的人口消耗掉,无法切实解决水资源短缺问题。

In the modernization process of social transformation and development,one of the important factors which influence and restrict the Beijing- Tianjin- Hebei（ BTH） wing area one of reality for the sustainable development is water shortage. This research is quantitative research by the method of carrying population in BTH region water can carry the size of population and economic development. Model validation results show that in the short term,water quantity of the BTH region population carrying capacity of rich,can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources; But since the 2025 years,because the population of the region water resources carrying capacity is insufficient,the BTH region again go into a period of scarcity. After the implementation of south- to-north water diversion project,BTH region obtained a certain degree of increase,the water resources carrying capacity in population growth,however,under the situation of water resources carrying population are almost limited. Based on this,the problem of water shortages in exploring the BTH resolution strategy,not just focus on water saving and water diversion engineering problems,also need to include for the population growth factors,avoid excessive increase in population. Otherwise,the results obtained with water,is likely to be excessive increase of the population consume,not really solve the problem of water shortage.