韶山市红色旅游与农业和工业相关性分析

Analysis on Correlation Between the Red Tourism and the Agriculture,Industry Development in Shaoshan City

选取韶山市2001—2015年旅游收入(YL)、农业产值(YN)和工业产值(YG)等进行相关性、方差和协整分析,分析结果表明,韶山市旅游收入与农业产值、工业产值相关性系数分别为0.913 2和0.975 5,说明韶山市红色旅游与农业、工业发展高度密切相关;韶山市旅游收入和农业产值的协方差为219.480 3,旅游收入和工业产值的协方差为673.624 8,说明韶山市红色旅游与农业相关性小于韶山市红色旅游与工业发展相关性;韶山市旅游收入与农业产值、工业产值协整性分析,log YL和log YN序列不存在协整关系,说明韶山市红色旅游与农业发展融合度不明显;log YL和log YG序列存在协整关系,说明韶山市红色旅游与工业实现融合发展.建议韶山市应加大红色旅游与农业、工业融合发展.

The correlation analysis,variance analysis and cointegration analysis are conducted based on the data of tourism income（YL）,agriculture product（YN）and industry product（YG）from 2001 to 2015in Shaoshan city.The results show that the correlation coefficients of the tourism income（YL）,the agriculture product and the industry product in the Shaoshan city are 0.913 2and 0.975 5which indicates that the Red Tourism and agriculture,industrial development are closely related in Shaoshan city.The covariance value of the tourism income and the agricultural product is 219.480 3and the covariance value of the tourism income and industrial product is 673.624 8which indicates that the association of the red tourism with agriculture is less close than that of the red tourism with industrial development.Through the cointegration analysis of the tourism income and agricultural product,industrial product,there is no cointegration relationship between log YL and log YN which indicates that the co-development of the red tourism and the agriculture is not obvious;there is a cointegration relationship between the log YLand log YG which indicates that the co-development of the red tourism and the industry is obvious.Therefore,it is necessary to increase the co-development of the red tourism and the agricultural,the industry in Shaoshan city.