贫困地区农户适应气候变化的行为及影响因素研究——基于澜沧江流域的实证分析

Behaviors and Affecting Factors in Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change in Poor Regions of China: Empirical Evidences from Lancang River Basin

由于气候变化会增加农业生产的风险,它对我国西部贫困地区农村居民的农业生产和生活带来严峻的挑战。因此,了解贫困地区农户对气候变化的认知水平,掌握他们所采取的适应措施,识别影响他们采取适应措施的重要因素,对政府制定有关政策具有重要的意义。选取澜沧江这样一个已经历了较明显气候变化的贫困地区为研究地点,通过问卷访谈搜集了较详细的村级和农户级数据。通过一般描述统计分析和计量模型分析,研究得出了如下结论:受访农户认为气候变化和自然灾害(尤其是旱灾)对他们的农业生产和生计会造成严重的影响;几乎所有的受访家庭已采取了一定程度的措施来适应气候变化;农户家庭采取适应措施的数量跟家庭的人力资本、接受的相关培训和社会资本等因素显著相关。基于上述发现,建议政府今后应采取适当措施提高农户的人力资本和社会资本,加强技术推广和农户培训,提高他们适应气候变化的能力。

Climate change increases the risks in agricultural production, which seriously challenges the agriculture and livelihood of residents in the poor areas of western China. Therefore, understanding the cognition level of farmers on climate change, managing their adapting measures, and recognizing major factors affecting their adapting measures are of significance for governmental policy-making. Selecting Lancang River Basin of Yunnan Province that obviously experienced the climate change as the studying site, the detailed data at village and farmer level was collected via questionnaires and survey. By general descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model, the major findings include： 1 ） The surveyed farmers believed that climate change and natural disasters （especially drought ） would cause the significant impacts on their agricultural production and local livelihood. 2） Almost all surveyed households have taken a certain level of measures to adapt the climate change. 3）The number of adapting measures by farmers was significantly correlated to the factors such as human capital of a family, the related training received, social capital, etc. Based on the above findings, it is suggested that government should take the proper measures, such as increasing the farmers＇ human capital and social capital and enhancing technical extensions and farmers＇ training, for improving their adaptability to climate change.