水库汛限水位调整风险决策模型构建与运用

Risk Decision Model for Adjusting Limited Water Level of Reservoir and Its Application

风险决策是风险分析的最终目的,构建风险决策模型计算风险效益与风险损失有助于进一步认识风险。建立了水库汛限水位调整多目标风险决策模型,目标函数包括大坝安全风险率最小和综合风险效益最大,提出了大坝安全风险率、风险效益与风险损失的计算方法,并通过约束法对模型进行求解得到非劣解集,通过比较得到最佳均衡解,以江苏省连云港市石梁河水库为例进行了研究。结果表明水库汛限水位控制在24.9 m时方案最优,水库对应增蓄水量8 233万m3,综合风险效益为1 754.1万元,相应的风险率为0.064 1,水库的洪水资源利用效益得到了显著的提高。

As risk decision is the ultimate purpose of risk analysis, risk decision-making model is constructed to calculate risk benefit and risk loss to help people understand risk in a further degree. In this paper, the muhi-objective risk decision-making model of reservoir flood operation was buihed on the limited water level adjustment. The objective functions of the model consisted of the minimum dam safety risk rate and the maximum comprehensive risk benefit. The calculation methods of the dam safety risk, the risk benefit and the risk loss were put forward in the paper. The model was solved to get pareto set by the constraint method, and the optimal equilibrium solution was obtained by comparison. Shilianghe reservoir of Lianyungang city in Jiangsu province was taken as a case study. The results showed that the best limited water level was 24.9 m, which will attain to the pareto solution. At the scheme, the risk rate is 0.064 1, and the storage capacity is increased by 82.33 million m3.The maximized comprehensive benefit is 17.541 million RMB, which will significantly improve the benefit of flood resources utilization.