基于天文指标法的大渡河流域长期径流预测研究

Research on the Long-term Runoff Forecasting of Dadu River Basin Based on Astronomical Index Method

长期径流预报是水利水电工程设计施工和运行管理的重要依据,在防汛、抗旱、供水、发电、航运及改善生态环境均有显著的作用。将表征日、地、月运行轨迹和相互关系的天文指标综合考虑,甄选出与预测年份相似的年份进行径流预测,研究发现1976-1991年与1995-2010年两组指标最为相似,由1976-1991年的来水性质来推算1995-2010年的来水性质,结果准确率为75%,该预测方法通过验证。最后对大渡河流域2015-2017年来水进行预测,预测结果显示2015-2017年大渡河流域来水为平偏枯年、平偏枯年、平偏丰年。

The long-term runoff forecasting is an important basis of design, construction and operation management in water conservancy and hydropower projects. It has a significant effect on flood control, drought relief, water supply, power generation, shipping and improving the ecological environment. This paper considers comprehensively the astronomical indicators of the sun, the earth, the moon＇s moving track and their relationship, picks up the similar years to forecast the inflow of Dadu River Basin. We find that the index between 1976-1991 and 1995 -2010 is the most similar, the runoff data of 1976-1991 calculate the water properties of 1995-2010, the result accuracy is 75%, the prediction method is verified. Finally the runoff from 2015 to 2017 is forecast, the results show that the inflow will be lower than in 2015 and 2016, higher than in 2017.