积极财政政策、金融市场扭曲与居民消费

Proactive Fiscal Policy,Financial Market Distortion and Private Consumption

本文基于中国1998年1季度至2014年4季度的宏观季度数据考察居民消费对政府投资冲击的动态响应,研究发现,政府投资扩张不仅会抑制居民消费,而且能产生明显的不对称影响。为理解这一特征事实,本文将金融摩擦嵌入一个多部门DSGE框架,识别金融市场扭曲这一传导机制的显著程度和作用机理,研究表明:(1)该模型能较好地拟合特征事实,具备使财政政策产生不对称影响的能力;(2)金融市场扭曲是积极财政政策导致居民消费下降的重要原因;(3)定向式信贷政策可以有效地矫正金融市场扭曲,缓解这一因素对居民消费的消极影响。

This paper first examines the dynamic response of private consumption to government investment shock by using Chinese quarterly data from 1998 ：Q1 to 2014 ：Q4. The empirical results show that the proactive fiscal policy depressed private consumption and had asymmetric effects. In order to understand this stylized fact, we introduce financial frictions into a multi-sector DSGE model to identify the importance and mechanism of financial distortion. This theoretical analysis demonstrates that （ 1 ） this model fits the empirical facts well, and can generate the asymmetric effect of the fiscal policy; （2） financial distortion is the dominant reason why the proactive fiscal policy depresses private consumption; （3） to alleviate the negative effects on consumption, directed credit policies are more powerful.