计重收费模式下运营车辆荷载的POT模型

POT Model of Operation Vehicle Load under Toll-by-weight Mode

当前我国高速公路车辆超载超限运营现象尤为严重,研究在计重收费模式下运营车辆荷载的极值以及其发展变化趋势成为十分迫切的问题。基于计重收费模式下广东省某高速公路的动态称重数据,对车辆荷载按车型进行了车辆总重的统计分析,采用极值分析理论建立POT模型,得出车辆总重分布的尾部分布函数,并科学地预测出未来任意重现期内可能出现的车辆荷载极值。结果表明,该高速路段出现超大吨位车辆并非偶然,在未来还可能出现更大吨位的车辆荷载,对既有道路桥梁的安全运营构成了严重的威胁。可为有效控制运营车辆超载提供参考。

At present, the vehicle overloading and overrun operation phenomenon of expressway is particularly serious in China. It is urgently to study the extreme value of the operating vehicle load under the toll-by-weight mode and its development trend. On the basis of dynamic weighting data of an expressway in Guangdong Province under the toll-by-weight mode, the gross vehicle weight is statistically analyzed by the motorcycle type of vehicle load. The extreme value theory is used to establish the POT model, to achieve the tail distribution function of gross vehicle weight, and scientifically to forecast the extreme value of vehicle load possibly appeared in any return period.Results show that the super-large tonnage vehicles appearing in this high speed section is not accidental, and the more larger tonnage vehicle load will possibly appear in the future, which will pose a serious threat to the safe operation of the bridges and roads, and can be referred for effectively controlling the overload of the operating vehicle.