新疆人口系统与区域经济系统协调性评价及影响因素研究——基于PSR分析框架的实证分析

Harmony Evaluation and Influence Factor Study of Population System and Regional Economic System in Xinjiang:An Empirical Analysis Based on PSR Analytical Framework

该文在"人口—经济—政府"PSR分析框架下,通过耦合协调度模型对新疆人口系统与区域经济系统协调性水平进行评价,运用多元线性回归模型对新疆人口系统与区域经系统协调发展的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:新疆人口系统与区域经济系统协调度虽然逐年提高,但协调质量仍较低;五个自变量中,政府消费比重、农业生产效率和投资率影响方向为正,失业率和农村居民消费水平指数增长率影响方向为负,且政府消费比重、失业率、农业生产效率以及投资率协调度的影响程度依次递减。

Under the analytical frame of PSR （Population-Economy-Government） model,the coordination level between population system and regional economic system has been valued through the coupling coordination degree model; the influencing factor has been analyzed by multivariate linear regression model. The results show that the coordination degree between population system and regional economic system had been improving,which benefited mostly from the development of regional economy.Among the five factors, Government Consume Rates （GCR）,agricultural productivity （AP） and investment rate （IR） have positive influence on coordination degree,while tmemployment rate （UR） and rural CPI increasing rate （SCPI） are negative.In addition,the results explain most of the changes in the standard deviation of the dependent variable;meanwhile,the growth rate of CPI in rural areas has the smallest influence on the dependent variable.